Life after a Pandemic

Today marks the second anniversary of the availability of vaccines for COVID-19! What a tumultuous 3+ year period it was. The first phase of denials, followed by lockdowns, then partial reopenings, and a cautious sense of normalcy, marked the distinct phases of this pandemic. Everything changed after the vaccine was available though. Humanity had finally won the war against this invisible enemy.

But it took more than 6 months for the vaccine to be made available to the general public, only doctors and healthcare workers got it in the first phase. After general availability though there was the same chaos which we experienced during early phases of the pandemic where people hoarded stuff, and essentials like disinfectant wipes were not available for months together. There was a beeline of folks wanting to get vaccinated. After about 4 months of patiently waiting, my family finally got the immunity through vaccination.

A lot of things have changed during this journey forever. Many Government administrations changed hands. Companies with cash crunch at the start of the pandemic are long forgotten in this sea change. Companies who managed cash well during the downturn are now seeing the fruits. Thankfully my company took early cost cutting steps to avoid a major debacle.

Retail landscape has also changed drastically. Nobody is excited now to go to the mall for serious purchases. Remember JCPenney? Oh you do? Companies like these are long gone out of business. Amazon and Walmart pretty much dominate the retail industry now. In general, the Tech Giants like Facebook, Netflix and Apple have benefitted the most. Amazon, with its retail and cloud businesses came out as a clear winner in all this.

On the bleak side, bankruptcies and related suicides are on the rise. Many people are now tapping the equity in their houses to avoid bankruptcy, thanks to the ever creative reverse mortgage industry, which is seeing the pandemic as a boon.

Talk of normalcy, I don’t think every sector in the economy is feeling that. Hotel and Transportation industries are definitely out of the slump they experienced for over a year. A lot of folks are going on leisure travel, no not on cruises; but these cost conscious, profit focused companies are still curtailing business travel. Now they know virtual meetings and events are as effective, why pay for employee travel.

Many companies are now promoting Work From Home culture as they have seen, it is equally if not more effective than work from offices. Who wants to pay the facilities cost now! This shift together with lower business travel has a positive effect on the climate!

During the pandemic, there was a lot of strain on the supply chain and in many parts of the World, well established distribution channels saw their effectiveness dwindle. Meat industry supply chain was the first one to be impacted, which forced people to look for alternatives, including plant based meats. Also people started to buy more from local merchants and farmers, unless you are longing for non-seasonal fruits and vegetables. 

The vast amount of stimulus money, of the order of USD 10+ trillion the governments all over the globe infused in the markets over multiple rounds is showing its effects. While a lot of that money went on sustenance of the peoples over a year or so, businesses who received that money are helping the stock market reach new heights. Look at the major indices, they have recovered and are well above the pre-pandemic level.

But that has also increased the gap between the haves and the have nots. Well-to-do people who could survive the pandemic and thrive after it ended are seeing the not so lucky folks driven into poverty. Unemployment is still at record levels in various sectors; naturally the crime rate has increased.

This prevalent but really a false sense of security is always overshadowed by the fear about when the next pandemic will hit us, where and how it will start, what will be the effects and are we ready to counter it the way we did this time.